Let me make the following predictions and anyone who cares to look back after the 2012 Presidential election can shake my hand or take me to task in whatever manner they choose suitable.
President Barack Obama will be elected to a second term.
Democrats will control both the Senate and House of Representatives from 2012 and through the 2014 mid-terms elections.
Reasoning: The living breathing Republican Party died with the choice of Newt Gingrich as the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Unfortunately, no one felt responsible for providing a respectful burial for the body politic known as the Republican Party and since it's self-inflicted suicide the corpse has lain in the streets, rotting and festering, waiting for its "Weekend at Bernie's" revival. Despite the intervention of high-profile clerics such as Robert Jeffress, at First Baptist Church in Dallas, no resurrection is in sight.
Why do I say this? It is a purely rational evaluation of the "emotional" comments I find in the news. Within the past few weeks the author of a letter to the editors of The Dallas Mornings said something to the effect that watching the Republican debates without Rick Perry was like watching Gilligan's Island without Gilligan. Then the ABC Evening News reported that a survey of likely Republican voters revealed that the respondents were at the point where they were willing to look past the character and previous performance of the likely Republican candidates in order to find a candidate. Then multiple reports on local and state election results which indicate that "contrary" voters, likely to fall into the Republican camp have ousted incumbents and "single-issue" candidates in favor or candidates with broader views on solutions to what ails our nation.
In my mind, this is what the Republican candidates, debates, and appeal to likely voters looks like.
It's a train wreck we can't take out eyes off.
Watching the Republican debates without Rick Perry is something like Gilligan's Island, except instead of missing Gilligan, what is missing is the island. The Republican candidates are like the survivors off a sunken ship treading water, waiting for the sharks to pick off everyone else and leave one of them the victor by default.
I see the forces that direct the shape and direction of the Republican Party as something like actuaries at an insurance company. They have refined the pool of available insured, through exclusion of the unworthy and risky, to the point that the cost of insurance is now spread across so shallow a pool that those still in the pool can't afford it. Hence, those die-hard "I'm a Republican" voters now must pay the high price of looking past the candidates' obvious defects in order to remain true to their Republican straight-jacket.
Let's look at the potential candidates as they bob and weave, rise and fall, pop up and then down like the children's game in which one hits the head of one wooden peg to force it down only to find by doing so they have caused another wooden peg to resurface.
Let's start with the latest of those star rising in the polls - Newt Gingrich. This is the architect who redesigned the House of Representatives along partisan lines, through absolute adherence to the party line, to the point that compromise became the equivalent of treason. This man is un-electable to the point that President Obama could vacation between now and November 2012 and still be re-elected.
Mitt Romney. Suspected by all sides for good reason. Will he sell out the middle ground now in order to be elected or will he sell out the far-right in order to govern once elected. This is a candidacy built on the shifting sands of left-wing, right-wing politics, attempting to built a bridge between them, without ever touching the solid ground between them. Sorry Mitt, but you are not Santiago Calatrava. It is not pretty to see.
Michele Bachmann. Who knew she was a numerologist and that by simply turning 9-9-9 upside down could find the devil in Herman Cain. Enough said, this woman would put her name and imprint on anything, including a writ of indentured servitude for her mother, if she thought it would help her chances of being elected. I used to be embarrassed that I lived in the state that had elected Rick Perry governor four times in a row. No, longer. I now feel superior to the voters from Minnesota that elected this one-horse rodeo as their best choice for the 6th District in Minnesota.
Ron Paul. Please, please, please keep your candidacy alive through any means possible. You are the Ralph Nader of this election. Siphon off enough Republican voters and you will have a life-long position on the "public speakers" rubber-chicken fund raising circuit.
Rick Perry. Hang you heads in shame Texas voters [members of Minnesotsa's 6th District set aside for the moment] this is your Governor. Let's see what comments come extemporaneously to mind. Brevity is the soul of the (nit) wit. I'd rather remain silent and thought a fool than open my mouth and confirm the fact; except you did indeed open your mouth and the fact was confirmed. Here is a man who would have us elect him to the highest office in the land on the basis of his ability to create jobs but can't remember the name of the department he would wish to eliminate (The Energy Department) So, let's increase employment by putting the approximately 16,000 highly-educated and trained in the employment lines. No matter, he can't remember where they came from so they must not count.
Herman Cain. Christ on his cross bless you. Could you commit such excess anywhere else but in the public eye? How many attorneys and advisers did it take to confirm that you could "reject" but not "deny" the information in the EEOC complaint against you? Remember folks, this is a guy to whom expediency means everything. Can't get a confession you want from an innocent detainee? Well, let's see if this pistol held next to your head doesn't get us what we need. Your posturing brings to mind the Christmas carol "I Heard The Bells on Christmas Day." God is not not dead nor doth he sleep. The wrong shall fail and right prevail. On your knees in fervent prayer all you heathens, "God save us from Herman Cain."
I watched the first election and judicial appointment of the second President Bush from outside the country and like the Dixie Chicks held my head in shame. Then I watched the 2008 election from the comfort of my den and cheered out loud though there was no one there to hear. This coming 2012 election I plan to watch in a very public place, like a sports bar turned Election Central for the evening, and scream out loud "I told you so."
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